I haven't used one and I can't buy one yet, as I'm Canada, but I do have some thoughts on why the iPad will be a success.
It's a Consumer Device not a Geeks Plaything
I've read quite a few reviews on the iPad including the Wall Street Journal's Walter Mossberg's and Boing Boing's Cory Doctorow's and they both touch on the subject but don't quite nail it down.
The iPad is not for geeks, it's not for business crowd (yet), it's for the average consumer who wants their Apps, video, books and web surfing for blogs, social networking, news etc. Let me repeat this, this is not a geeks plaything. You can't open it up, unless you try really hard, you can't upgrade it and you can't replace the battery.
The iPad is 100% Closed
The iPad is not an open device. It's 100% closed just the way Apple like's things. Apple has always wanted and kept firm control of its hardware and this has more recently extended to the Apps on its iPhone and now the iPad.
Some people, like Cory Doctorow, don't like that Apple is so closed, that it's so proprietary. So what. I'm an open source supporter but I'm also an Apple consumer. Why? Because their products are functional, easy to use and deliver the experience I want. And let's face facts, consumers have spoken loudly buying iPod's and iPhones en masse.
I'll add that I too wish Apple was more open and wasn't so tyrannical with its App developers. Philosophical difference aside, consumers ultimately will decide if a product is successful or not.
What's Missing
The first generation iPad is missing a camera, an SD memory card slot and Adobe Flash. None of which is a show stopper. Producers are already converting video to other formats so the iPad can view them. Do you love YouTube? Well don't worry, you can watch 10+hours before needing to recharge your battery.
Why it will Succeed
It's simple really. Keep it simple and leverage past successes. The iPad combines form with function that appeals to consumers. That's it. It's simply an extension, an evolution of, first the iPod, then the iPhone, and leverages iTunes with the Apps store. And I can't stress how important it is to leverage existing tools like iTunes with the Apps store. Other devices exist, will be built but Apple has a legacy of tools and Apps to draw on that gives it a competitive advantage, for the moment.
Is the first generation of the iPad perfect? No, but will it appeal enough to consumers to make it a success? I think so.
For me it provides an infotainment device I don't have. What I mean by that I want a device that will both entertain and educate me. I like reading blogs, newspapers, books, watching videos etc. Right now I either have to buy a newspaper, which I don't like to do, buy real books or e-books or use my laptop to do all of the above. But my laptop weighs too much, it's clunky and definitely not my ideal device when sitting in my comfy chair. My smartphone is ok, but it's too small for prolonged, relaxed usage. But the iPad on the other hand just might be what I need. I can relax with a coffee, put my feet up, read the newspaper, answer an email if like, watch the sports highlights, read a book or my favorite blogs or do research etc.
The iPad in my opinion is part of the first generation of infotainment devices, better than a smartphone, not as clunky as a laptop, just the right size to consume copious amount of information, whether for entertainment or knowledge discovery.
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